Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
